Trump and North East Asia

 As it seems clear that Trump would be Mr. President, i want to organize my thoughts here.
 For the reason why Trump won, it is just simple; people need witches to blame, not the cause. Of course there are many other talks about political correctness regarding Hispanic crime rates or reverse discrimination from Muslim. But the most important factor embedded would be if they could retain their job till they get old enough. You know, there is no social safety net like public health insurance in US. Normal people in america want to believe foreign workers slashed their job opportunities and rich guys are manipulating that phenomenon. All the talks about walls, evil Hillary's lies, FTAs, Isolationalism stem from that thought about their job. In part, it is true. But the main cause is not a person. It is a wave of industrial revolution in the course of profit maximization that requires lowest labor cost. It is ironic that american dream is the cause of profit maximization that lead to reduction of new hiring.
 But as i said in earlier post, US would be run well cause US is basically run by money makers, not democratic entities. But the thing is, president appoints its cabinet. So there would be other types of rich guys who have influence in government. And considering what Trump said, he is advocate of isolationist. He don't want to assume the role of international police.
 What does that mean? It means the situation in North East Asia is a lot like World War 2. Rise of nationalism, charismatic leaders with following political restructure, legislative restructure to wage a war, plus (could be) isolated US. All those things are happening in there.
 First, Japan just revised their constitution so that they can now wage a war in case of self-defense or helping US forces. That means, if North Korea makes serious trouble, there is nothing wrong for Japan to conquer NK with US forces. It would fit well with Trump admin in that US could reduce much of the military cost in that situation. It could be not that a problem unless Japan's prime minister, Abe, is advocate of his grand father, Nobusuke. Nobusuke was key executive member of Empire of Japan during pacific war. So Abe may want to succeed his grand parents' job .He also concentrated much of his political power in revising History textbook for students. In new textbook, Japan is described as more of a victim of nuke who recovered gloriously, not a offender of World War 2. It reminds me Hitler's youth who are raised as a proud patriot for Hitler. It is interesting that there would be Olympic in 2020, which could be post-modern version of Berlin Olympic of Nazis. Best part is, those students who learned from new textbooks would be adult in 2020. For them, there is no war criminal in Japan, just victim is there.
 Second, Xi just succeeded the trace of Mao. It was highly forbidden for General Secretary to gain full control of Military force after since Mao. But he broke the rule. His anti-corruption campaign also attracts people's support, so it would be safe to say he is reincarnation of Mao.
 Third, Russia, brand new nuclear war head.
 Fourth, North Korea is on the unstable condition in that leader Kim seems to have trouble running nation. He is losing china these days and key executive members are increasingly defecting from his country. It is also said that he reinforced his bodyguards, which is one of the evidence of fear that every dictator's last scene had.
 Above all, most of war generation died or too old. There are not much people who remember war. There are not much thing to prevent military conflicts except for nuclear deterrence, which is ironic. Of course, some people say that people are too used to peace and comfort so no one would agree on war, but that's naive. As i said, there are not much people who have been through well designed propaganda or instigation. And if anyone has been in any kind of violent protest for even silly reason, that person would understand how crowd mind is irrational. I am quite sure there wouldn't be total war, but there could be local wars, and it is bad for economies and quality of lives. But this kind of uncertainty would also generate a lot of opportunities. Creation needs destruction. I hope i am strong enough to enjoy this era.


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